A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
